The Big Stat Stretch — October's New Space Marine Codex is Just The Start
We've been here before.
With the advent of what was once a controversial Primaris release in 2017, what it meant to be a Space Marine changed forever. What we once thought were immutable truths — simple stat lines that ran 'all-fours' from left to right across the profile became a thing of the past.
In 2020, that shift was consolidated when Firstborn Space Marines joined their Primaris counterparts on two wounds. Across that wider period, heavier Marine units also gained Toughness profiles that would once have raised eyebrows. Especially for those of us grounded in the trenches of 3rd edition tradition.
Multi-wound basic infantry, scaling toughness values for tanks, monsters and for more heavily armoured heroes — this was all madness, surely? Fast forward a few years and the changes now seem rather insignificant. Not because the changes themselves were insignificant, but because the entire game changed around them. Primaris arrived on the scene with a new Space Marines codex and suddenly (eventually) most Marine/heretic equivalents were rocking multiple wounds and higher toughnesses. In response, too, damage values across the weapons of the 41st millenium pivoted to deal with it.
For an indication of what might happen in the future, you can always look to the recent past for a little precedent.
Toughness 5 Space Marines — Does This Spell Doom For All Who Oppose Them?
Hardly.
In fact, I daresay that when Games Workshop makes intrinsic changes to the posterboys of Warhammer 40,000, the best place to look for the more interesting changes are the waterboys of Warhammer 40,000.*
But what do I mean by that? Games Workshop isn't going to make sweeping balance changes through the delivery of a single codex. No — not even a Space Marine codex. At Brush & Bolter, we think their goal is to stretch out stats across the whole game, not just those of specific factions. My prediction is this will affect the datasheets and weaponry that inhabit that gooey middle area.
Imagine for a moment: you're out to dinner and you're about to lay both hands on one of your jumbo mozzarella sticks**. You promptly pull it apart with glee. What invariably happens is both ends come apart to reveal a gooey, stringy mozzarella centre. This is going to be the stretched-out middle part of Mozzarella 40K that you'll want to keep an eye on.
Am I eating this post instead of writing my lunch? It's anyone's guess, really.
What Does Toughness 5 Space Marines Mean For Everyone Else?
If you're sitting at the bottom of the spectrum, not a lot. If you're the lowly guardsman of the Astra Militarum, you aren't going to see any changes to your humble mars pattern flashlight. After all, your strength 3 weapon against toughness 5 is still a 5+ to wound with the current iteration of the damage chart.
We don't want to bore you with a list of speculative changes, but we'll take a few examples from across the spectrum of factions to illustrate the point. These are Brush & Bolter's predictions on where things are likely to change and remain the same:
Tau Empire
I think we'll start to see an increase from the threat posed by battleline infantry.
Pulse Rifles will go to strength 6 and possibly pick up a pip of AP.
Crisis suits will go to toughness 6
Kroot slug weaponry stays as-is
No changes to heavy armour or heavy weaponry
Drukhari
Dark Eldar are quite well placed to receive the changes to Space Marines due to a naturally high volume of attacks and the application of anti-infantry when it matters.
Incubi will benefit from stronger attacks — single/dual blades going to strength 6/5 respectively for the Incubossi.
Tyranids
Just like the humble guardsman, the Gargoyle, Termagant and Hormagaunt won't see any changes. Instead we should see adjustments to the gooey-centre Genestealer and Warrior-types.
Genestealer attacks move to strength 5.
Pre-buff CC Warrior attacks move to strength 6.
Warrior Deathspitter attacks move to strength 6.
CSM/Heretic Astartes
This one is easy — Games Workshop has already prophesied that CSM equivalents will receive a similar treatment to the Space Marine updates. So expect to see:
Basic weaponry updates
Toughness increases
Adeptus Sororitas
With the abstraction between toughness and armour in present-time Warhammer 40,000. There's an argument here to say that a Phobos marine in half-plate could be just as tough as a sororitas in full plate — we're backing that bet.
Power-armoured sororitas move to toughness 4 across the board.
Sororitas-issue bolter weaponry get a slight boost.
STC: Standard Template Changes
Is there a pattern here?
We think so — midrange unit types that are typically effective against or aligned with space marine equivalents will remain that way. Light infantry types like guardsmen, guardians, termagants, skitarii, cultists, etc are less likely to benefit from any changes. They are, however, going to become a lot more vulnerable to these new juiced-up marines. To further illustrate the impact of these changes, we've got some useful baseline math:
Weapon Strength | Wounds T4 on | Wounds T5 on | Change in successful wound rolls |
3 | 5+ | 5+ | None |
4 | 4+ | 5+ | 33.3% fewer |
5 | 3+ | 4+ | 25% fewer |
6–7 | 3+ | 3+ | None |
8–9 | 2+ | 3+ | 20% fewer |
10+ | 2+ | 2+ | None |
The math supports the assertion — the middle of the table is more affected by these changes, and the crispy breadcrumb edges remain mostly consistent.
Games Workshop Are Making These Changes to Reflect The Lore, They Say.
I believe them.
With these changes, the Space Marine becomes far more dangerous to things that are distinctly weaker than them — channelling some fabled 'movie-marine' energy.
What has allowed Warhammer to do this the lay of the modern land. The majority of toughness stats no-longer float between 3 and 6, like they did for years before now. This used to leave just three pips of toughness between a guardsman and a carnifex, which gave Games Workshop very little room for maneuver or expression.
In today's 11th edition of Warhammer 40,000, we enjoy a diverse range of toughness values and a consolidated infantry/vehicle damage system. This allows for much more room when balancing middle-of-the-table datasheets (and the weapons designed to deal with them).
Space Marines Are Becoming More Dangerous to Each Other
It's not just the downstream infantry units that are going to be getting the rough end of the new and improved bolter. At the newly upgrade damage value of 2 — other Space Marine units are going to have to assign a higher threat level to the humble Intercessor.
It's not yet clear if these multi-mode formats will be seen across other bolter-armed marines in the new Space Marines Codex, but we hope to see some kind of damage 2 option generally available. Our fear is that the Damage 2 firing mode is to make up for the (by design) limitations of the plastic intercessor kit, which features a distinct lack of special weapons even in its most recent iteration (above).
It's for that same reason that we don't expect to see these kinds of features rolled out to other marine units such as Plague Marines, for example, who have a diverse range of weapon options featuring damage 2 in their profiles.
Ergo, we expect to see Saturation-esque outputs widely available, but Focused Fire will come at a balance premium. Perhaps even staying Intercessor-only. What deserves attention is how far this 2 damage mode goes: the further it spreads, the more effective marines are going to be at taking down other marines.
Stretching Out Movement Values.
We're not a fan of this at Brush & Bolter. Succeeding in games at 11th edition means applying your strengths at the right time. This requires both speed and firepower. As a Death guard main, I can confirm that Death Guard lack meaningful amounts of both. As such, this is only going to exacerbate our weaknesses. From an objective standpoint, though, I think this thematic representation in the rules can only be a good thing.
As for inherent Death Guard weaknesses. Recent tournament results suggest that you can make up for that weakness with inordinate amounts of Poxwalkers and a spread of Defilers. Defilers which did indeed get more expensive as foretold by our previous post.
Playing effectively with 60 Plague Marines looks further and further away with every dataslate — but enough of that tangent!
Personal griefs aside, it looks like fast armies are getting even faster:
Phobos marines, in their half-measured power armour are increasing to Movement 8". In response to the response from the Aeldari community, Games Workshop have hinted that Aeldari units are increasing in base speed to stay in line with the way these armies are meant to feel.
After all, marines being faster than aeldari in any conventional capacity would be a major faux-pas. So will we see Drukhari and Aeldari units at a base level of movement 8, or even 9? This plague-riddled footslogger certainly hopes not!
Will The New Space Marine Codex Changes be Game-Breaking?
They'll be game-changing. Whether they're game-breaking or not will entirely depend on the internal balance of the Space Marine codex and how the points change to reflect the changes in the overall medium-infantry dynamic — as we've described for a few prime examples.
More Elite, or Simply More Expensive?
Admittedly, this isn't fool-proof speculation. Nothing here is a safe bet. There is a perfectly reasonable counterargument so say that these mid-range weapons and units are supposed to be less effective against our new movie-marines.***
GW has explicitly linked the improvements to higher points costs and smaller, more elite armies. If every opposing weapon immediately gains enough Strength to restore its previous wound roll, it undermines the whole point of the change.
Yes — perhaps marines should feel harder to remove without leaving their opponents short of meaningful answers — but those answers don't all need to be bigger guns. Factors like numbers, positioning and contesting objectives all matter just as much as which weapons are good at scoring wounds on Marines.
Damage 2 focused fire, too, doesn't automatically mean twice the damage application at the end of a sequence. Shot counts, accuracy, abilities and the number of Marines affordable in an 'elite' list all need to be considered. Stronger individual Marines might still leave a Space Marine player with fewer tactical options when the cards are down.
Final Cogitations
At Brush & Bolter we think that there's room for all of these aspects to co-exist. Marines can be more expensive and still be elite, and mid-range weaponry can still be effective against them without undermining the whole effort.
Ultimately, we're going to be welcoming a more diverse range of statlines to Warhammer 40,000, even if it is against a backdrop of saying goodbye to a diverse range of first-born datasheets. But that's a different story all-together!
Until next time. Jamie M
*Literally every other faction.
**Easy, tiger.
***More like limited-series-marines, but it doesn't roll off the tongue.
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